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000
FXUS61 KCTP 191113
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
713 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY MILD AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER STRING OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS VARY WIDELY THIS AM...EVEN BTWN MDT AND CXY...WITH CXY QUITE
A BIT MILDER THAN MDT. IT COULD BE A CALM WIND OR SLIGHTLY ACROSS-
WATER FETCH FOR MDT THAT MAKES THEM COOLER THAN THEIR VERY-NEAR
NEIGHBOR. KMUI IS 57F AT 2 AM...WITH A NW WIND OF 8G15KT. WHERE
THERE IS SOME WIND...AND SOME ELEVATION...TEMPS ARE STAYING
MILD...BUT ANY PERIOD OF STILL AIR WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO DROP.
BFD 10F LOWER THAN ANY OF IT/S NEIGHBORS...BUT IT IS AFTER
ALL...BFD.

LOOK FOR THE FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NW TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME
DROPPING INTO PA...AS THE RIDGE HOLDS. THE SUNSHINE AND SIMILAR 8H
TEMPS TO YSTDY WILL RESULT IN VERY SIMILAR MAXES TODAY...AND SEE
NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM PERSISTENCE. DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL
GENERALLY GET DRIER THRU THE DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE WRN
MTS...WHERE SOME WRLY FLOW WILL TRY TO ADVECT IN SOME 30+
DEWPOINTS. HARDLY MOIST BY ANYONE/S STANDARDS. EARLY SPRING WILD
FIRE CONCERNS MAY RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A CONTINUING TREND...THE MDLS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE APPCH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...AS THE TROF DIGS AND EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER
THE MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SERVE TO HELP THE HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
ERN STATES AND CONTINUE OUR LONG STRING OF REALLY NICE AND REALLY
DRY WX. WEAK FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE IN FM THE NW ON SAT...AND COULD
HELP TO KEEP THINGS COOLER THAN CURR FCST IN THE NW. BUT...WITH
TREND THE WAY IT HAS BEEN AND MOS GUIDANCE RUNNING TOO COOL...WILL
KEEP THEM UP FOR NOW. EXPECT MAXES IN THE 60S AND L70S SAT AND
U50S AND 60S ON SUN. RIDGE AXIS DOES MOVE TO OUR EAST BY SUN...BUT
SLOWING OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM WILL KEEP MOIST ISEN LIFT TO
OUR N FOR THE MOST PART. WILL KEEP SOME WEAK CHC POPS IN THE FCST
FOR SAT NIGHT IN THE NRN TIER WITH PROXIMITY OF THE DIFFUSE FRONT.

MSTR SHOULD INCREASE ON SUN AND MON WITH GOOD SRLY FLOW AND
DYNAMICS NEARING FM THE W/SW. RA BECOMES LIKELY IN THE W LATE SUN
NIGHT AND ON MON FOR EVERYONE. NOT BOLD ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS
ATTM...BECAUSE OF THE TYPICALLY-HARD-TO-HANDLE CUTOFF. WHILE WE
SEEM TO STAY POLEWARD OF THIS SFC AND UPR CYCLONE...THE TEMPS WILL
BE WARM DUE TO SLOW ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS IT PULLS AROUND ITSELF. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN.
PLUMES INDICATE A GREAT SPREAD IN RAFL TOTALS - BUT MEANS ARE
AROUND AN INCH - MAYBE A LITTLE MORE - AND SPREAD OVER A COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MARGINALLY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT SE BEHIND THE SFC LOW AS IT
HEADS TWD THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCTD RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
925-850 TEMPS/WET BULBS DIPPING TO AROUND ZERO C ONLY IN THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS.

AFTER A RELATIVE MIN IN TEMPS ON TUESDAY...THE MERCURY WILL
REBOUND TO SEVERAL DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED-FRI AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT DRIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S.

INCREASING...LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHC FOR
SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY...OR MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND PER A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HI PRES EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL
RESULT IN GOOD FLYING CONDS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR.
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...RAIN/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SHRA/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion