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000
FXUS61 KCTP 040202
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1002 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM TO SUMMERLIKE READINGS NEXT WEEK...BUT MORE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TROUGH OFF TO THE E...AND CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER ERN OH
AND IN THE DOWNSLOPE OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
SPRINKLES/WEAK SHRA TO DIMINISH SHORTLY...BUT WILL JUST MENTION A
SPRINKLE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT IN THE N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDS (PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 5-7F) FOR
SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD THRU NEW ENG.
HAVE GONE WITH JUST A SLGHT CHC OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OVR SOUTHWEST PA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM OVR THE OHIO VALLEY.

LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO REMOVE EVEN THIS LOW CHC...AS THE MEAN OF
THE FAIRLY SIMILAR 12Z NAM/GFS KEEPS PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE
LIGHT/LEADING EDGE PRECIP TO THE WEST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. 09Z SREF IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THESE
OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
LIGHT QPF.

HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON
SATURDAY A BIT LOWER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST...SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST CLOSELY. GENERALLY A SCT-BKN MID
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S BY LATE EVENING. THIS COULD MEAN SOMEWHAT CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR
4TH OF JULY FIREWORK VIEWING. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL HOLD
TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.

BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...CENTERED ALONG THE 305K THETA SFC WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THE NRN EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
(WITH SVRL HUNDREDTHS TO 0.10" QPF) AS FAR NORTH AS I-76 OR ROUTE
22/322.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY...BUT A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BENEATH A POOL OF COOL 700 MB TEMPS OF JUST +1-2C.

TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 70-73 ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND 75 TO 79F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS BROAD
TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE SCT MAINLY AFTN SHRA.

GEFS MEANS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER
HEIGHTS LIFTING NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS...WHICH MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
HEADED OUR WAY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATE DAY CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN AND EVEN CONTINUE TO
REGENERATE OVER THE REGIN. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...MVFR CIGS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS OF KBFD AND KJST. AS UPPER COLD POOL
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY...AND LAST VESTAGES OF DIURNAL
HEATING FADE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CU TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE...AND REMAINING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROF RELAXES. STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW...BUT NO PCPN.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS...AND LIMITED CHANCES OF PCPN.

OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU WED...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/TYBURSKI

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion