There are no active watches, warnings or advisories for zone PAZ066.
Weather data updated: 5:58:09 AM 000 FXUS61 KCTP 051037 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 537 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF PA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS THE S TIER. HOWEVER...SFC OBS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS IS VIRGA...THE RESULT OF DRY NERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. WILL CARRY A LOW CHC OF -SHSN ACROSS THE S TIER COUNTIES UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH CALM WIND...HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN PA. RUC AND HRRR SFC RH SUGGEST FOG ACROSS THE SC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE BY ARND 14Z. MUCH DRIER AIR MASS...POISED ACROSS THE LOWER GRT LKS...WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TODAY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR EARLY FEB WITH ENS MEAN 850MB TEMPS ARND -6C LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U30S ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M40S SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS PA TONIGHT...SUPPLYING MCLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL DRAW A SURGE OF VERY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD REACH 45-50F OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. BUKKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SWRLY WIND GUSTS ARND 20KTS BY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE NW MTNS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW -SHSN OVR THE N MTNS. PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY BUT PROGRESSIVELY COOLER...AS SHORTWAVES CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS. MDL CONSENSUS TRACKS FIRST SHORTWAVE THRU PA LATE WED/EARLY THURS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SCT -SHSN. FCST UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP BY FRI/SAT...AS MDL SPREAD INCREASES WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH/TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. A BLEND OF GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES POINTS TOWARD A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE ARND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY COLD/DRY WEEKEND. THE STRONGER/SLOWER 00Z GFS SOLUTION...WITH POSSIBLE E COAST CYCLOGENESIS...APPEARS AN UNLIKELY OUTLIER ATTM. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BANDS OF LOW STRATOCU AND SNOW EMMINATING FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING LIFR TO VLIFR VSBYS AND CIGS TO JST AND AOO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DRYING WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE...MVFR POSS NW HALF. VFR SE. WED...MVFR POSS. THU...VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU